Investors await US election results - 9.11.2022

On Tuesday, the US dollar index fell for the 3rd day in a row. After the good data on the labor market, published on Friday (Non Farm Payrolls), investors expect a slowdown in the Fed's rate hike (4%). According to CME FedWatch, at the meeting on December 14, it can be increased by only 0.5% with a probability of 56%. There was no significant economic information in the US yesterday. This morning, the US dollar index rose slightly against the backdrop of the weakening of the yuan, as well as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. In China, inflation fell to 2.1% y/y in October. Investors fear that this could be a sign of a slowdown in business activity.

Bitcoin yesterday showed a powerful fall and updated a 2-year low. Now the psychological mark of $20,000 can become a resistance level. The main negative for the entire crypto market was the message about a possible lack of liquidity of the FTX Cryptocurrency Exchange and the collapse of its FTT token quotes.

US stocks rose for the 3rd day in a row yesterday. A possible slowdown in the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy is positive for the stock market. Quotes of the pharmaceutical company Amgen Inc rose by 5.5% due to good reporting. Investors are awaiting the results of US elections in the House of Representative and Senate. The opposition Republican Party may win a majority as voters may not be happy with the recent 40-year inflation high in the US under incumbent Democrat Joe Biden. Today in the US there are data on wholesale stocks (Wholesale Inventories). Financial results of TC Energy and other relatively small companies will also be published.

On Tuesday, oil prices fell for the 2nd day in a row. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an unexpectedly large increase in US oil inventories for the week by 5.62 million barrels. An additional negative was the risks of a slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy. On December 5, the European Union is going to suspend the import of Russian oil in order to tighten economic sanctions against Russia. Market participants are waiting for the results of the US elections, which may clarify the US position on this issue.

Natural gas quotes in Europe on the ICE Dutch TTF are trading at about $1,200 per 1,000 cubic meters. It is likely that $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters has now become a support level for European gas prices.

Cocoa rises in price amid an outbreak of black pod disease and shortages of fertilizers and pesticides in West Africa.