The Bank of Canada meeting will take place today - 7.6.2023

On Tuesday, the US dollar index rose slightly within a narrow range of 103.6-104.6 points. There were no significant economic data in the US yesterday. Yesterday, Germany Factory Orders and European Union Retail Sales for April were worse than expected. Against this background, this morning the euro exchange rate is declining for the 2nd day in a row. The negative was added by Germany Industrial Production. It rose in April (+0.3% m/m). This is less than expected. Also this morning, the China Trade Balance for May was released. The US dollar surplus turned out to be noticeably worse than expected and hit a 13-month low. The yuan surplus was the lowest in a year. This caused the yuan to weaken, as well as lower prices for almost all commodities. The Australian dollar has now stopped its growth. This was facilitated by the morning publication of Australia Gross Domestic Product (+2.3% y/y) for the 1st quarter, which turned out to be worse than expected. The Bank of Canada meeting will take place today. No change in the 4.5% rate is expected. Recall that Canadian inflation in April was below the rate and amounted to 4.4% y/y. In addition, Canada Trade Balance for April will be published. His outlook looks negative. The Canadian dollar is now slightly weakening.

Bitcoin quotes rose yesterday and played up all the previous fall. Now they are about $27,000. There hasn't been much positive so far. On the contrary, except for Binance, U.S. The Securities Exchange Commission found violations in the work of another crypto exchange Coinbase. Shares of Coinbase Global Inc fell 12% yesterday, and in 2 days they fell by almost 20%. As we wrote yesterday, the players still believae that the violations of crypto exchanges are not too serious and the global crypto market will not suffer.

Yesterday, US stock prices rose. The expected refusal to further raise the Fed rate (5.25%) at a meeting on June 14 has a positive effect on the stock market. Shares of Advanced Micro Devices rose 5.3% after some investment companies raised their valuations and recommendations. The growth leader among sectoral indices was the S&P 500 Financials (+1.3%). Shares of American regional banks, which fell sharply in the spring, rose in price: U.S. Bancorp (+4.5%), Zions Bancorporation (+4.9%) and East West Bancorp (+5.6%), Comerica Inc (+7.1%). Stabilizing the Fed's rate could improve their capital structure. The United States Trade Balance for April will be published today. The outlook is neutral.

Today, oil is getting cheaper on the back of weak Chinese foreign trade data for May. The volume of exports in yuan decreased by -0.8%, while in US dollars it collapsed by -7.5%. Market participants expected it to increase by about +10% y/y in both currencies. Note that China's trade surplus in both yuan and US dollars ($65.81 billion) hit a year low. Oil quotes are supported by the message of the American Petroleum Institute on the reduction of oil reserves in the US for the week by -1.71 million barrels. U.S. official data on oil reserves to be released today. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The leaders of growth among commodity futures yesterday were copper and wheat. So far, their increase looks only like a correction from multi-month lows.

Natural gas in Europe fell on ICE Dutch TTF and returned to $270 per 1000 cubic meters. US gas prices on Henry Hub continued to rise in price sluggishly and reached $2.29 mmBtu.