How to Trade JNJ: Stelara Decline and New Product Hopes

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) drug Stelara, which brought in more than $11 billion last year, is under threat from biosimilars in both the U.S. and Europe. Which directly hits JNJ’s core pharma revenue and profit.

Stelara’s sales will decline, probably sharply, over the next few years. JNJ needs to replace that revenue with new products. The question is whether its recent moves can realistically fill the gap.

New JNJ Products and a Focus on Development

Neuroscience and Mental Health

The $14.6 billion acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies brought Caplyta, a drug for schizophrenia and bipolar depression, into JNJ’s portfolio. Caplyta is expected to hit $1 billion in sales in 2026, possibly growing to $2.5 billion by 2028. Alongside this, the FDA’s recent approval of nipocalimab for generalized myasthenia gravis adds another therapy in neurology.

Oncology Advances

The combination of RYBREVANT and LAZCLUZE recently showed strong Phase 3 results in EGFR-mutated lung cancer, outperforming the current standard osimertinib. This could reshape treatment options and be a meaningful revenue driver if approved and adopted.

Medical Devices

JNJ’s MedTech division is pushing digital orthopaedics with robotic-assisted systems like VELYS and KINCISE, aiming to capture more surgical market share. But these markets are competitive, with Intuitive Surgical as a strong leader.

JNJ Risks

Sales of Varipulse devices have been suspended

Safety concerns linked to strokes forced JNJ to pause sales of this cardiac ablation system. This hands market share to competitors like Boston Scientific and Medtronic, slowing JNJ’s growth in this space.

Stelara Facing Biosimilars

Biosimilar competition in key markets means pricing pressure and volume loss are unavoidable. The risk to revenue is real and ongoing.

Legal Problems

Ongoing talc litigation creates financial and reputational risk. Recent efforts to isolate liabilities via bankruptcy were blocked, meaning this cloud remains over the company.

What This Means for You

With several moving parts — clinical data, FDA approvals, legal rulings, device setbacks — JNJ’s stock could see swings depending on the news flow. Monitor announcements closely. Watch how quickly can new products ramp to offset Stelara’s decline. If pipeline launches stumble or biosimilar erosion accelerates, expect downside pressure.

Positive clinical trial results or FDA approvals for RYBREVANT, Caplyta, or nipocalimab could trigger sharp upward moves. Also earnings reports will be critical to gauge real revenue trends.

JNJ’s stable and recently increased dividend appeals to income traders. But if growth stalls and legal costs rise, dividend safety could be questioned longer term.

You should watch

• Upcoming FDA decisions on RYBREVANT, nipocalimab
• Clinical trial updates (especially oncology and neuro drugs)
• Quarterly earnings reports with updated revenue guidance

Pay close attention to clinical, legal, and earnings news, combined with entry and exit tactics. Johnson & Johnson is taking on risk with new, expensive bets in neuroscience, oncology, and medtech. Some look promising; others carry execution and regulatory risks.