Fed meeting will take place today - 21.9.2022

On Tuesday, the US dollar index rose, but failed to renew the recent 20-year high. According to CME FedWatch, with a probability of 84% the rate will be increased by 0.75% and with a probability of 16% - by 1%. Now it is 2.5%. On Tuesday, U.S. The 2-year note almost hit 4% per annum for the first time since October 2007. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose yesterday to an 11-year high of +3.6% per annum. Thus, investors hope for a real tightening of the Fed's monetary policy and do not rule out an increase in its rate to 4.5% by March 2023. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a partial mobilization. This could weaken the euro and other European currencies. The dollar index is likely to rise.

Bitcoin is trading below the psychological $20,000 mark, which is now a resistance level. The creators of Ethereum transferred this cryptocurrency from the "Proof-of-Work" protocol to "Proof-of-Stake". Investors rated this event negatively. It turned out that Ethereum mining has become less profitable. In addition, some crypto companies and funds began to attract investors through unsecured crypto lending. This could increase financial risks for the entire crypto industry. However, the market is now unlikely to collapse.

Yesterday, US stock indices dropped significantly. An increase in the Fed's rate can increase the credit burden of corporations. As a result, their income may decrease. Investors believe that by March 2023 the Fed rate will rise to 4.5%. Recall that the start of the publication of quarterly financial statements in the US will take place on October 11-12. Yesterday, Ford Motor announced a possible increase in costs due to record inflation and its shares fell 12%. After that, shares of another automaker, General Motors, fell 5.6%. Yesterday, Apple shares rose 1.5% on strong demand for the iPhone 14, which kept the decline in the Dow Jones Technology industry index the lowest of its kind. In addition to the main event of the day - the Fed meeting, data on the secondary real estate market for August (Existing Home Sales) will also be released today. Now futures for US stock indices are slightly adjusted upwards.

Now oil quotes have slightly increased against the background of the beginning of partial mobilization in Russia. It ranks second in the world in terms of oil exports after Saudi Arabia. The share of Russia in the world export of oil, oil products and natural gas is approximately 15%. A negative factor for oil quotes could be a report by the independent American Petroleum Institute on an increase in US oil reserves by 1.04 million barrels over the week. They have been growing for the 4th week in a row.

The price of natural gas in Europe (TTF) is slightly above $2,000 per thousand cubic meters today. Russia is the largest exporter of wheat. Its share in world exports is approximately 20%. Accordingly, wheat quotes are now showing a noticeable increase.