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Over the past 7 days, the American dollar has remained almost unchanged. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 89% probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the meeting on July 26th. The Swiss franc has strengthened due to positive economic indicators such as Credit Suisse Switzerland Economic Expectations and KOF Switzerland Economic Barometer. The Turkish lira weakened as a result of persistently high inflation in the country. In May, inflation reached 39.59% year-on-year, significantly surpassing the Turkish Central Bank's interest rate of 15%..

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has declined. As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its interest rate at 5.25% during the meeting on June 14. Now, investors are monitoring economic statistics and trying to forecast the change in the Fed's rate at the next meeting on July 26. The Australian dollar responded positively to the increase in employment change in May to 75.9 thousand, which is the highest since June of last year. The Norwegian krone has strengthened ahead of the upcoming meeting of the Norges Bank, scheduled for June 22. Apart from the US dollar, among the leaders of the decline, the Japanese yen can be noted. Investors are slightly disappointed with the extremely accommodative monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the retention of the negative interest rate of -0.1% during the meeting on June 16. It should be reminded that the Bank of Japan has maintained a negative rate since January 2016.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has remained largely unchanged. It has been trading in a narrow range of 103.2-104.4 points for the 4th week in a row. Investors are awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting on June 14. Tesla shares have risen due to the opening of new gigafactories and the news that General Motors and Ford may use its Supercharger network for their electric vehicles. The South African rand has strengthened due to positive economic indicators. South Africa's Gross Domestic Product grew by +0.2% YoY in the first quarter of 2023, contrary to expectations of a decline of more than 2%. Cryptocurrencies have declined following claims by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission against the activities of crypto exchanges Binance and Coinbase.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has remained almost unchanged. After the publication of economic statistics and statements by Federal Reserve representatives, investors believe that the Fed will maintain the interest rate at the current level of 5.25% at the upcoming meeting on June 14. The Australian dollar rose in anticipation of the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on June 6. Its rate stands at 3.85% with Australian inflation at 7% YoY in the 1st quarter of 2023. The Canadian dollar also rose in anticipation of the upcoming Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting on June 7. Its rate stands at 4.5% with Canadian inflation at 4.4% YoY in April 2023. The Turkish lira continued to weaken after Recep Tayyip Erdogan's victory in the presidential elections on May 28. Previously, he pursued a soft monetary policy. The euro weakened due to a relatively moderate decline in inflation in May to 6.1% YoY from 7% in April. Market participants believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise the rate (currently 3.75%) by no more than 0.25% at the meeting on June 15. Note that this week various ECB representatives will be speaking almost every day.

Over the past 7 days, the US Dollar Index continued its rise. The main positive factor was investors' belief that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the next meeting on June 14. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike to 5.5% from the current level of 5.25% increased to 58.4%. It was only 25.7% a week ago. This week, the US will release many important economic data. On June 2, the United States Nonfarm Payrolls report will be published. The New Zealand Dollar weakened as investors believed that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate hike to 5.5% from 5.25% may be insufficient. Additional negative factors included a significant decline in New Zealand Retail Sales in the first quarter of 2023 (-4.1% y/y).

Over the past 7 days, the US Dollar Index has risen for the 3rd consecutive time. The main positive factor was investors' belief that the Fed will maintain the 5.25% interest rate not only until the September 20 meeting but even until the November 1 meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of keeping the rate (5.25%) in September has exceeded 50%. A week ago, it was only 32.5%. New Zealand Trade Balance in April 2023 turned into a surplus (+$0.427 billion) for the first time since May 2022, which contributed to strengthening the New Zealand Dollar. Japanese inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.5% YoY in April 2023, weakening the yen.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has risen and moved up from the neutral range it had been in for about a month and a half. The main positive was investors' belief that the Fed will keep the rate at 5.25% at least until the September 20 meeting. The South African rand weakened on weak statistics. South Africa Mining Production in March decreased by -2.6% y/y, for the 14th month in a row.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has slightly decreased within a neutral range of 102.3-100.7 points. United States Nonfarm Payrolls for April was so good (+253k) that investors now do not rule out a reduction in the Fed rate as early as July. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of such an event is estimated at 35.4%. Note that other American economic indicators have also been positive lately. At the next FOMC meeting on June 14, the rate is likely to remain at the current level of 5.25%. The rise of the Australian dollar was supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia raising the rate on May 2 to 3.85% from 3.6%. In addition, Australia has released good data on foreign trade and retail sales. Statistics in New Zealand were also moderately positive. The Swiss franc fell as investors do not rule out a reduction in the Swiss National Bank rate (1.5%). Swiss inflation in April reached an 11-month low of +2.6% y/y, thus approaching the Swiss National Bank's target level.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has again remained almost unchanged. Investors expect the Fed to raise the rate from 5% to 5.25% at the May 3 meeting. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of such an event is estimated at 86%. The dollar could be held back by weak preliminary growth of 1.1% q/q in the United States Gross Domestic Product in 1Q 2023 after rising 2.6% q/q in 4Q 2022. It was expected to increase by at least 2% q/q. The strengthening of the euro was supported by investors' expectations that the European Central Bank would immediately raise the rate by 0.5% to 4% from the current level of 3.5%. His meeting will be on May 4. The British pound rose in anticipation of an increase in the rate of the Bank of England at a meeting on May 11. The Australian dollar weakened as inflation fell to 7% y/y in 1Q 2023 from 7.8% y/y in 4Q 2022. Investors fear that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its rate at 3.6% at the May 2 meeting.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has remained almost unchanged. Investors are expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates from 5% to 5.25% at its meeting on May 3. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of such an event is estimated at 88.6%. The Australian dollar has strengthened in anticipation of inflation data to be released on April 26, which could affect the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to raise interest rates (+3.6%) at its meeting on May 2. Inflation in South Africa rose by 1% m/m in March, lower than expected (+1.4% m/m), which contributed to the strengthening of the South African rand. Inflation in Japan in March was 3.2% y/y, higher than expected (+2.6% y/y). Japan's trade balance in March was negative (deficit) for the 20th consecutive month, which has led to a weakening of the yen.

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