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Arabica Coffee Technical Analysis - Arabica Coffee Trading: 2022-05-31
Coffee Technical Analysis Summary
Above 230
Buy Stop
Below 208
Stop Loss
| Indicator | Signal |
| RSI | Buy |
| MACD | Buy |
| MA(200) | Buy |
| Fractals | Buy |
| Parabolic SAR | Buy |
| Bollinger Bands | Neutral |
Coffee Chart Analysis
Coffee Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, COFFEE: D1 has exceeded the downtrend resistance line and is trying to exit the triangle for the 2nd time. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if COFFEE: D1 rises above its latest high and upper Bollinger band: 230. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit is possible below the 200-day moving average line, the Parabolic signal and the last two lower fractals: 208. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (208) without activating the order (230), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Coffee
Brazil is experiencing drought and is at risk of frost. Will the COFFEE quotes continue to rise?
Somar Meteorologia reported that in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, last week the rainfall was 52% less than the historical average. This state produces 30% of Brazilian Arabica coffee. CONAB has cut its coffee production forecast for Brazil in the 2022/2023 season by 2.3 million bags (60kg) from its previous estimate in January to 53.43 million bags. At the same time, it may still be 12% more compared to the previous season, but 15.3% less than the 2020/2021 season. It should be noted that various Western agricultural agencies are expecting a much larger coffee crop in Brazil this season - approximately 63-64 million bags. If they start to revise their forecasts downward before the official CONAB estimate, then this could positively affect the quotes. In the meantime, the Cecafé agency reported a decrease in coffee exports from Brazil in January-April 2022 by 10.6% compared to the same period in 2021. In April, Brazilian coffee exports fell 24.3% to 2.56 million bags. The Colombian Coffee Growers Federation reported an 18% y/y cut in coffee exports from Colombia in April to 875,000 bags.
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This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.
