Preparing for macroeconomic data release
Technical Analysis Summary GBP Index: Sell
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
| RSI | Neutral | |
| MACD | Sell | |
| MA(200) | Sell | |
| Fractals | Neutral | |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell | |
| Bollinger Bands | Sell |
Chart Analysis
On the daily timeframe, GBP_Index: D1 broke down the neck line of the Head-Shoulders technical analysis pattern and a 200-day moving average line. A number of indicators of technical analysis formed signals for a further decline. We do not exclude a bearish movement if GBP_Index falls below its last lower fractal and lower Bollinger line: 1.358. We can use this level as an entry point. Stop loss is possible higher than the last upper fractal and the Parabolic signal: 1,408. After opening the pending order, we move the stop loss tracking the signals of Bollinger and Parabolic to the next fractal maximum. Thus, we change the potential profit / loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of trend. If the price overcomes the stop level (1.408) without activating the order (1.358), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that have not been taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of -
In this review, we propose to consider a personal composite instrument (PCI) & GBP Index - GBP currency index. It reflects the price dynamics of the British pound GBP against a basket of major currencies. Will GBP_Index quotes decrease?
A downward movement means weakening of the British pound. Brexit could negatively affect the British economy. Important macroeconomic data for January will be released in the UK this Wednesday: Construction Output, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Monthly GDP, Trade Balance and others. All forecasts are negative, which may adversely affect the dynamics of the pound. Note that the rate of the Bank of England is 0.75%, which is much less than annual inflation of 1.8%. According to interest-bearing futures, with 100% probability the Bank of England will lower the rate to 0.5% at the next meeting on March 26. Let us recall that on March 18, the next round of negotiations on Brexit begins, which may affect the dynamics of the pound.